The Illusion of Stability: Why the Future of the Mainline Church Is Worse Than You Think

A few years back, I was in another major US city for a non-church-related work conference. Since my wife had come with me, we were doing some sightseeing during some free time I had. Being the church nerd that I am, I decided I wanted to go see the big Disciples church in the city. Lovingly, my wife obliged, and since it was a relatively short Uber ride, we went. As it happened, it was a Sunday morning, and we were visiting right around mid-morning. "We might make the end of worship," I thought.

As we neared the church, the Uber driver commented on seeing people regularly exercising on the steps of the church every morning, running up and down the steep flight. The driver dropped us off in front, and we made our way up those steep steps. I was excited to see this glorious building and thrilled to be technically catching the last few moments of worship. Yet, as I entered the sanctuary and caught a view of the massive yet nearly empty space, my heart sank. This beautiful and profound worship setting had perhaps 25-30 people in it. As excited as I was to see the space, in the back of my mind, I could only think, "How can every Mainline leader not be praying for revival within their churches?"

The Urgent Crisis Facing Mainline Churches

Mainline Christianity is on the brink of collapse. Churches that once flourished with baptisms and confirmations now struggle to fill pews. The situation is dire—if churches do not take drastic action now, many will cease to exist within a generation. The numbers are not just concerning; they are catastrophic. If our churches do not turn their focus toward making new disciples, they will vanish before our eyes.

Lead vs. Lag Measures in Church Health

Understanding the difference between lead and lag measures is critical to assessing and revitalizing church growth. Lead measures are proactive efforts that drive future results and can be seen in many industries. For example, in business, lead measures might include increasing customer engagement or launching new marketing campaigns, while lag measures would be quarterly revenue or profit margins. In healthcare, lead measures could include patient screenings and preventative care programs, whereas lag measures would be hospital readmission rates.

In the church context, lead measures include intentional discipleship programs, community outreach, and strategic evangelism efforts, all of which contribute to new baptisms and confirmations—clear signs of a growing church. Lag measures, on the other hand, reflect past growth and can provide a false sense of stability. Attendance and financial giving, for example, may seem steady, but they rely on previous commitments rather than new engagement. Neglecting lead measures guarantees a future decline in lag measures.

The Deceptiveness of Attendance

A congregation might sustain steady numbers for years, even decades, because longtime members continue attending. However, if those members joined 50 or 60 years ago and are not being replaced by new believers, the church is merely maintaining an illusion of stability. Attendance, one of the most misleading lag measures, can mask true decline. Ben Crosby highlights how attendance as a primary metric can be deceptive. A church may appear to be holding steady based on Sunday worship numbers, but if baptisms and confirmations are declining, the church is in reality shrinking. The presence of longtime members who joined decades ago keeps attendance numbers afloat, but without new people committing to the faith, the future of the congregation is in jeopardy. Eventually, as these members age and pass away, the true extent of decline becomes unavoidable.

Why the Future is Even Scarier Than the Numbers Suggest

Understanding the difference between lead and lag measures is crucial because lead numbers reveal an even more alarming future. While lag measures, such as attendance, may paint a picture of stability, lead measures—like baptisms and confirmations—tell a different story, highlighting a trajectory of decline that is worse than it might initially appear. For instance, within the Anglican Church in Canada, confirmation rates have plummeted to a fraction of what they once were. In 2022, fewer than 2,000 people were confirmed across the entire Anglican Church of Canada—a dramatic decline from past generations.

This alarming trend is not unique to Canada. The Episcopal Church has reported a nearly 50% decline in baptisms since the early 2000s (Episcopal News Service, 2023). The United Methodist Church has seen sharp declines in both baptisms and confirmations over the past decade, with generational disengagement accelerating the losses (United Methodist General Council on Finance and Administration, 2023). The Evangelical Lutheran Church in America has reported a nearly 60% drop in infant baptisms since 1990 (ELCA Report, 2023), and the Presbyterian Church (USA) reported just over 7,000 confirmations in 2022—a staggering decline from over 25,000 in the 1990s (PC(USA) Research Services, 2023).

To be blunt, this is why Dwight Zscheile and Ben Crosby, among others, predict that due to ongoing denominational decline, the Evangelical Lutheran Church in America and the Episcopal Church could shrink to near extinction by 2040. This projection is not just about dwindling numbers—it is a wake-up call for urgent and strategic action to revitalize and grow the church before it is too late.

A Call to Revival and Evangelism

This idea largely comes from Ben Crosby, who himself noted the lack of institutional effort on behalf of revival and evangelism despite the horrific numbers. Instead, in his instance, the Episcopal Church has chosen to pump out countless resolutions on social advocacy topics. Not that these topics are not important, but if this church is to be a voice for justice and inclusion, it must first exist! To that end, I'm rhetorically putting my money where my mouth is, and along with

Dennis Sanders

, penning a resolution for our own denomination, the Christian Church (Disciples of Christ), which we hope to be approved for discussion at our own General Assembly this summer.

THEREFORE, BE IT RESOLVED that the General Assembly of the Christian Church (Disciples of Christ) calls upon all congregations, regions, and general ministries to commit themselves to regular prayer for revival within our churches and communities; and FINALLY, BE IT RESOLVED that congregations are encouraged to develop or renew intentional practices of evangelism, striving to share the good news of Jesus Christ in word and deed, and that each congregation and region seek opportunities to foster collaboration in evangelism and revival efforts, creating space for mutual learning and encouragement.

Hope is not lost—God is still with us, and renewal is possible. Last year, while attending another conference in another major US city, I again sought out the big Disciples church for Sunday worship. This time, traveling alone, I walked about 25 minutes and arrived just as the service was beginning. Though not overflowing, the congregation was diverse—filled with people of different ages, nationalities, and ethnicities. The guest pastor delivered a powerful message, and the singing was spirited and alive. This historic Mainline church was not merely surviving; it was actively welcoming new people and faithfully living out the gospel.

Death and decline are not inevitable.

Will we watch our sanctuaries empty out, our pulpits fall silent, and our churches fade into memory? Or will we answer the call to revival, working and praying for a church that is alive in faith and mission?